Friday, January 24, 2020

SPX Update

Last update noted that SPX had run to a possible resistance zone, and that zone sparked a small correction -- so far.  Whether that will turn into a larger correction remains to be seen, but as noted on the chart below, a run toward the bottom of the channel is at least possible at this moment:

In conclusion, there's still not much to add.  Long-term, the trend remains up.  Near-term, a correction isn't out of the question, as the market has maintained a nearly straight-up trajectory since the beginning of October in an apparent (and assumed, since October) third wave -- which does mean that, at some point, SPX will need to form a larger fourth wave.

As readers have noticed, I haven't been too anxious to attempt any top calls (with good reason, it turns out), as third waves often run longer than seems reasonable, which makes them difficult to trade against.  That said, we could finally be nearing corrective territory -- but I'm awaiting a little more in terms of firm signals from the market before saying much more than that.  We'll see how the next few sessions shake out, but it's not a bad time for bulls to at least consider showing a little more caution than they've needed to for the past couple months.  Trade safe.

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