Friday, March 6, 2020

SPX and INDU: No Material Change

Last update expected we were at or near the end of a complete wave, and it appears that was correct.  The question now is whether that peak will mark the end of Wave A of 4 or ALL OF 4.  My gut instinct is that it's Wave A of 4 and that we will retest the zone near the swing low (plus or minus), then form a second rally leg, but it's hard to say if support will materialize during waterfall decline waves, so we'll simply have to play it by ear.

This chart has proven handy, with SPX's break of the median leading to the projected bounce, and that bounce now retracing.  Past breaks have led to more sideways action before heading toward the channel bottom, so the overall bounce may not be done yet:

Finally, SPX stalled after back testing the broken channel:

In conclusion, no material change since last update.  SPX has likely either completed ALL OF Wave 4, or completed Wave A and is working on Wave B now.  I'm leaning toward this being Wave B (or Wave 2 of the alternate bull count) with another rally leg to follow, but this "ain't exactly your father's market," so we shall see.  Note that SPX will be testing a possible support zone right at the open today, so we'll be watching to see how it handles that.  Trade safe.

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