Monday, March 2, 2020

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update had the market nearing the bottom of a potential 3rd wave (per the count shown on INDU), though I caveated not to bank on that (and I maintain that as a standing caveat during waterfall declines) -- but given Friday's large sideway-up grind, it does appear that we did hit the bottom of a 3rd early in the day:

We also broke the median channel line in SPX more significantly, which was expected to lead to a bounce:

SPX is currently hanging in a sort of no-man's land between trend lines:

In conclusion, we're in a zone where the market could bounce if it wants to, but there's nothing terribly definitive in the charts at the moment, as we're hanging in a sort of no-man's land.  The first upside inflection zone is near SPX 2990-3000, where the downtrend line from the all-time high currently sits.  If the market can maintain trade north of that, it would at least break the near-term waterfall channel, which would be something it hasn't had the strength to do since this decline began.  If it can't, then we may just be seeing a "dead cat bounce."  Trade safe.

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