Monday, April 20, 2020

SPX Update: Can Bears Capitalize on This Opportunity?

A week ago, I noted that SPX was approaching resistance, which stretched from about 2850 to 2882ish.  The market has since tested that zone a few times, and on Friday, it reached as high as 2879 (note that even though we knew Friday was going to open higher, I declined to turn bullish, and instead reiterated that "ideally, bears will make a stand somewhere in the discussed zone").  SPX has (thus far) been unable to break through the noted zone, and futures today are indicating that it's going to open lower.

Accordingly, this at least has the potential to be a pivotal day, and if bears can break through (and hold below) support, they may finally get a larger decline going.

Let's look at near-term support first:

Bigger picture, the blue path is still my "best guess," but there's really nothing so far to add confidence to that.  The first step for bears is to form an impulsive decline, and/or break though support.

In conclusion, back on April 13, I noted the 2850-2882 zone as resistance, and the market is (again) reacting to it, which gives bears a shot to get in the game.  We'll see how it plays from here.  Trade safe.

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