Wednesday, May 13, 2020

SPX and NYA: Cloudy with a Chance of Powell

Last update noted that:

I can already say that if we gap lower this morning, Friday's high is going to at least have potential to be a b-wave high (which would mean it's an unresolved high and would need to be exceeded).

And that's exactly what happened.  After gapping lower, then rallying back up to break the presumed B-wave high, SPX reversed lower again.  It will be testing its first support zone today, near 2850.  Bears need to sustain a breakdown there (whipsaws (brief breaks of key levels that reverse directly) are often near-term bullish).  If they can maintain a breakdown, that would likely take them to test the lower red line next.  If they can't, then bulls might use that zone as a springboard.

(note: typo... "trae" = "trade")

NYA looks a little more straightforward than SPX.  At first glance, it looks like an ABC rally... but I'm not entirely able to rule out that rally as an impulse (hence the black bull count) and bears would thus like to see a sustained break of 10,900.

In conclusion, the jury is still out on where the near-term count sits, so I've shown the two competing options via NYA.  Today will hopefully answer which option is more likely.  Trade safe.

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