Monday, May 18, 2020

SPX and NYA: No Material Change

Last update noted that the downside targets had been captured, but that there was a slim chance the low was a b-wave.  Today's open will run close to the "or 2/B?" on the chart below.  The zone near the prior 2/B high (plus or minus) will be the inflection.  (Note that the fact that the market has/is rallying toward the "or 2/B?" does not add any confidence to that option, because it would rally that far if the ABC were to be complete at last week's low.)

SPX continues to rally from its three down (ABC) inflection as well:

In conclusion, no material change.  Potential three down identified last week seems to be holding.  Bears will have another shot as we approach prior highs, but if they can't get anything done there, then they may need to go back into "watch and wait" mode while bulls run with the ball.  Trade safe.

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