Wednesday, May 6, 2020

SPX Update: No Material Change

Note: Sorry for the late update today... I was almost done, but then got stuck managing my own trades at the open and couldn't quite get finished with the update (it was a pretty active open, for anyone who wasn't around to witness it this morning).

Last update noted that the decline was three waves down from the 2950 zone, and "would remain so even if the market opens lower today."  The market did open lower on that day, and then bounced almost immediately, to the tune of 100 SPX points.  This means that this decline is still three waves from the high, which means the market has kept its options open for the time being.

On the near-term trend line chart, SPX bounced back out of the previously-noted red congestion zone, then back-tested it yesterday.  The black line below that, currently near 2830ish, looks like important support.  If bears can manage a sustained breakdown there (and then, of course, at the critical low of 2797), then that could take us toward 2740-60.

Here's another way to look at the near term; the blue channel is pretty well-defined:

In conclusion, there's no change to the big picture, and the battle lines have been drawn for the near-term: Bears need a break of Monday's low to confirm an impulsive turn.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment