Wednesday, June 10, 2020

SPX and NYA: Near-term Intrigue

So now we have what appears to be an impulsive decline from this week's high, but once again this is coming off a "less-than-clean" high, so there's some question as to whether the high is a b-wave (see: "expanded flat").  It is worth noting that NYA is below its first support line, so unless/until bulls can reclaim that, it gives a slight advantage to bears. The next test would be the rising trend channel:

SPX is also trying to break/hold below is first near-term support zones, and "or (1)" remains a viable option.

In conclusion, the market remains stalled at the "or (1)" inflection, and does appear to have formed a small impulsive decline from the recent high.  The option of a complex double retrace that revisits the zone near the crash low is not entirely out of the question yet, so let's keep a close eye on this going forward.  The first step for bears is to sustain/hold a breakdown at yesterday's low.  If bears cannot break that low, then the potential for yesterday to be a b-wave high would remain alive and well and suggest new highs on the way.  Trade safe.

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