Friday, June 5, 2020

SPX, NYA, COMPQ: Long-term Preferred Count within Inches of Being Confirmed

Just over two months ago, I penned a piece titled "Why I Haven't Joined the Long-Term Bear Camp Just Yet" and outlined why, despite the clear fundamental destruction, I ultimately remained long-term bullish.

In that piece, I wrote:

So now, here we are, with all initial downside targets captured. Many people are insisting this is the beginning of a new, many-year-long bear market, and while I can completely understand WHY they believe that, I'm still not sold 100% on that belief. 

Readers will recall that, about a month ago, before the crash had really gotten rolling, I noted that "C-wave" was sometimes said to stand for "Crash wave." C-waves are third waves, and bring all the power of a third wave to the table. First or A waves are generally weak, and thus *rarely* function as crash waves. 

Therefore, the strength of recent record-setting crash certainly argues for it indeed being a C-wave, and not a first or A wave. 

Either way, I am pretty firmly in the camp that this is NOT going to be a 5-10 year bear market, and I think the chart below may help reveal exactly why I'm not sold on this being "the big one" JUST yet:

And the chart that followed that is now updated below:

Intermediate-term, at the time I penned that piece, I wasn't yet 100% certain if ALL OF 4 was complete (we were watching first resistance for clues), but long-term, I was pretty convicted that we were in a fourth with new all-time highs still pending.  The preferred long-term count will be confirmed when COMPQ makes a new all-time high.

Intermediate term, so far, the market is behaving as if it's launching into the third wave we've previously discussed:

NYA also updated below; recall that we spotted the Wave 2 inflection in real-time:

In conclusion, the long-term preferred count may be confirmed in today's session, at least for COMPQ.  The intermediate count has the lingering "or (1)" option, but again (as I've said a million times), it's best to await an impulsive decline before betting against a bullish trend.  If the market is in a third wave rally, it could be pretty relentless for a time.  Trade safe.

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