Wednesday, July 15, 2020

SPX and INDU: Still Being Stubborn

So 3234 has been the level we've been watching for a while, and on Monday, SPX rallied to that level and reversed hard, which may have been good for a short-term trade for nimble traders -- but today, futures are indicating we're going to open at or beyond that level, which is going to make things challenging for bears.

While a B-wave high will still be possible, to be followed by a C-wave down for (previously presumed) wave (2), it is very hard to trade such waves... and usually ill-advised to attempt to front-run them.  Because once the June swing high is claimed with authority, bulls will at least have the option to be in the midst of a third wave rally (see alt: i/alt. ii below), and third waves can be relentless. 

It is worth noting that INDU is a little further below its June swing high than SPX:

As a side note, I'll be frank:  It's really hard to know what to make of that June decline now.  I was pretty sold on it as an impulsive decline, so that means either it isn't (despite appearances to the contrary), or it has to be the C-wave of an expanded flat... but it's challenging to locate the A and B waves of said flat. As far as I'm concerned, that makes it something of an anomaly. And this is not to say that I'm "never" wrong about such things -- but it's pretty unusual for the market to sell me on something like that and then proceed to completely ignore it.  I guess if the B-wave option doesn't materialize, then we can perhaps chalk it up to the unprecedented government and central bank intervention causing mutations in the wave patterns (which does happen).  We'll see how it goes from here.

In conclusion, if SPX can sustain a breakout over the key 3234 zone, then bears are just going to have to be patient, since bulls will have the option of a third wave rally.  In the event bears can generate a solid reversal in the next couple sessions, then we'll play that by ear for the option of a B-wave high/C-wave decline.  Trade safe.

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