Monday, July 20, 2020

SPX Update: Annie, Get Yer Gun

I'm just going to come out and say it:  This market stinks.

Let them come after me with their hooves and horns, but it needed to be said.  SPX refuses to resolve itself one way or the other, and has now been stuck in a trading range for a record 4000 sessions.
(Editor's Note to CNN's "Fact Check" Team:  He's kidding.  We think.)

While bears would still need to be cautious if there's a sustained breakout, this is starting to "feel" like a B-wave.

Many other indices (INDU, TRAN, BKX, et al) still remain below their June swing highs.

The major caveat, of course, is that, from a technical standpoint, there is absolutely no way to predict a b-wave once the prior swing high is broken, as it was in SPX.  Since SPX did break its June swing high, albeit just barely, that opens up the technical possibility that the current rally is on the cusp of a strong third-wave launch.

But when you see a market meandering around like this after breaking a prior swing high, it at least can be a sign of a B-wave.  So as I stated last update, bears aren't out of the running just yet -- but really the only practical advice here is, no matter which way you lean, stay nimble and be prepared for the market to go against you.

Beyond that, nothing has been happening, so still nothing new to add.  Trade safe.

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