Monday, August 10, 2020

SPX, INDU, NYA: Or Should We Say, "The Fed"

So the biggest news that's fit to print is that INDU has now -- finally -- broken above its June highs:


This means bears need to be quite cautious unless/until there are signs of a reversal.

NYA is still hanging out just below its June highs (indicating that the rally is stronger in big names than in the broad market).  In the past, this used to mean something, but in the modern Fed-sponsored market, who knows.

Finally, SPX has developed into an ugly impulse up off its June lows.  We'll discuss that in a bit more detail after the chart:

As we can see on the SPX chart, there now appears to be a i/ii/iii/iv (I forgot to label the iv, but it's apparent where it would be), with SPX currently in a potential micro v.  That means that when it develops its next impulse down, we probably have to treat that as the start of a brand-new wave.  Frankly, this market reminds me a lot of 2012, in that it's just a relentless grind higher with a terribly ugly pattern.

Probably not coincidental that 2012 was also a year that the Fed was juicing the market.

Wasn't 2012 also the year that the world was supposed to end or something?  Maybe the Aztecs got three of the digits right... (that's a joke -- I think).

In conclusion, INDU has broken out, so we'll see if bulls can hold that.  SPX could be working on a fifth wave, which can always end a move at one or more time frames -- but bears should probably await an impulsive turn before getting too excited, to help signal that the fifth is not planning to extend.  The broader trend, as we've anticipated/known for months now, remains up -- which means bears are still countertrend trading, which is always the most difficult.  Trade safe.

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