Monday, August 31, 2020

SPX Update and Random Weekend Thoughts

Last update noted that the next near-term upside target was 3520-25, and the e-mini S&P futures (ES) have already tagged that in the overnight.

Near-term, SPX has established an uptrend channel within the broader uptrend channel:

Bigger picture, there's no change... still presumed to ultimately be headed toward black.

Beyond that, I just want to share a random "Supercycle-related" thought I've had more than a few times of late.  How many people are familar with the Hekla 3 Eruption?  (Note: I hate to use WikiPedia as a source, but amazingly, there is almost no good info on that eruption outside of the scientific literature, so such is life.)  This was a massive volcanic eruption that occured in Iceland around 1028 B.C.  It threw 7.3 cubic kilometers of rock into the atmosphere, leading to an 18 year period of pronounced global cooling in the northern hemisphere.  This in turn led to drought and famine in the Middle East, and many historians believe it was in part responsible for the rather sudden end of the Bronze Age, wherein multiple advanced civilizations entirely disappeared simultaneously.

Throughout history, we find periods of prosperity are linked to periods of climactic warmth:  The Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Modern Warm Period, for example.  The reason for this is obvious:  During periods of warmth, food can be grown pletntifully.  And, again quite obiously, food is the first basis of civilization (hard to build a thriving civilization during times of famine!).

During periods of cold, civilizations contract -- or end entirely.  The Earth has undergone climactic cycles for all of history -- in fact, the last Ice Age barely ended a mere ~12,000 years ago (actually, to be technically correct, the last Glacial Maximum ended ~12,000 years ago -- we're technically still in an Ice Age, just in the Interglacial Period of said Ice Age, known as the Quaternary glaciation.)

Anyway, we as traders know that the majority of people are usually looking the exact wrong way on things.  If the majority are looking down, the market tends to go up.  We know from history (and logic) that the current warm period is a blessing... and we know from history that it will likely one day end, possibly abruptly.  What if everyone is looking the wrong way again?

Note I am NOT saying "oh, we're headed for another glacial maximum" or anything that bold.  I'm just thinking out loud, sharing a random thought I've had many times.  A global cooling period would lead to a massively contracting global economy, the exact opposite of what we've had since the end of the Little Ice Age, which ended around 1850 A.D.  

Just food for thought.  Trade safe.

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