Wednesday, October 14, 2020

SPX and Gold Updates

I've only unintentionally missed a very small handful (I believe less than four or five) updates in the past decade, but I missed Monday due to misreading the calendar.  My apologies for that.

Moving on, here's an interesting psychological fact:  Our perceptions are driven by our goals.  

This means that we not only tend to see what we want to see, but what we see will change depending on what we want.

So it's not just our opinions that are biased, our perceptions themselves are biased.  I believe this is incredibly important for traders to be aware of, because, while everyone does this (unwittingly), it doesn't impact most people the way this can impact a trader.  Especially once a trader is holding a position.  If he/she is long, he/she will tend to see "facts" that argue for the market rising; if he/she is short, he/she will tend to see "facts" that argue for the market falling.

What facts are you not letting through?

Heading over to the charts, SPX has cleared the blue trend line on the daily:

On the hourly, SPX has managed quite a rally from last month's target/inflection zone (I feel like bears keep seeing the black (1)/(2), while ignoring the blue ABC bull count):

And here's a quick update to the gold chart:

In conclusion, SPX has rallied back to retest the all-time high, and does appear to have formed a small (50 point) impulsive decline from its most recent high.  This suggests bears have the first chance for a turn since the rally from 3209 began.  Whether that turn will be a simple ABC to be met with new highs after, or the start of something larger, remains to be seen.  (All presuming that first 50 point leg is indeed an impulse; to be confirmed or denied by the market directly).  Trade safe.

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