Monday, October 5, 2020

SPX Update: Possible Congestion Zone

On Friday, the market remained stalled at its first target/resistance zone, declining back toward support before rebounding.

It's worth being aware that SPX is currently in a larger congestion zone:

On the chart above, the first step for bears would be to sustain a breakdown at the lower red channel line (and 3310)... the first step for bulls would be to sustain a breakout over the falling blue trend line.  A sustained breakout there could take SPX toward the upper end of the congestion zone (3455ish), and maybe even to 3480-3500 (as noted Friday).

Bigger picture, SPX is still below the blue pivot trend line, but heading toward it instead of away from it.

In conclusion, I don't have a strong opinion on the market at this moment.  The downside target was captured, which could have completed an ABC decline.  The most recent upside target was captured as well.  Now SPX is into a congestion zone, so we'll just have to await the market's next cue.  Trade safe.

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