Monday, November 30, 2020

SPX Update: Debt, Debt, Debt

Have you ever wondered "exactly how much debt can the system withstand over the long haul?"  

Seems the world is burning to find out:

But hey, those aren't even final numbers yet.

Speaking of, this next chart is from back in May (I can't find a chart that's more recent for all the World's Major Central Banks, but we'll look at the recent Fed data afterwards):

Here's the latest Fed-only balance sheet data:

When you combine all that debt, you can't help but be struck by the sheer awesomeness of it.  And I don't mean "awesome" as in "Whoa dude, that's a totally awesome color to paint your car!"  I mean it as in: "That F5 tornado heading right for our house is an awe-inspiring sight to behold."

I suspect future generations will look back in horror and wonder what we were thinking, or if we were even thinking at all.  We'll probably even be around to have that thought ourselves.  (I suspect the same about many of our proposed "climate" "responses," which are often radically overblown given the hard empirical data.  To generate public support, such radical responses rely on media hype more than real science, but then brand themselves as "science" anyway.)

It goes without saying that none of us have ever lived through an full-blown broad-based economic Supercycle crash, but I imagine such a wipeout requires participation across multiple sectors of society.  Logic would suggest it can't just be financial; it will require societal and political "cooperation" as well:  A perfect storm of multiple major disruptive factors converging together upon the same time and place.

I think most of the puzzle pieces are in place.

But to reiterate something I've said recently:  I don't think we're there yet.  I'll also add that I don't believe there's any reason for premature panic: When the trigger finally comes, it will probably be "obvious" to those of us who've been along for the whole ride.  The ensuing reaction will only take the masses by surprise.  (Because it must -- just as the Corona Crash did, just as the 2008 crash did, and so on.)

Chart-wise, nothing really to add, as Friday was a do-nothing session:

In conclusion, Friday did nothing, which leaves us in the same place we were then.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment