Monday, November 2, 2020

SPX Update: Nothing to See Here, Just a Sea Change...

So... one day left until the (probably contested) Election begins.

Here's something big and Federal Reserve-related to be aware of if Biden wins:

"the elimination of disparities of...employment, income, wealth..."

For anyone who hasn't done the math here, this is what has come to be termed "equity" -- which is political-speak not for equality of opportunity (which everyone should favor) but for equality of outcome.  That same anti-liberal concept is discussed in more detail in today's piece On the Eve of Election, Liberals and Conservatives Must Unite, as America's Supercycle Peak Approaches.  Also quoted in the above linked piece, here's F.A. Hayek (again) to explain why equality of outcome can only lead to massive inequality:

It always sounds so... GOOD and well-meaning, doesn't it?  Yet we know how that story ends because we already ran that experiment in the 20th Century in the old Soviet Union.  Equality of outcome is an idea that's so far left it isn't even a slight exaggeration to call it full-blown Marxist.

As with many things:  It starts as something that sounds good, but ends in destruction.

Anyway, that was brought to my attention last night, and given that it would institutionalize a Marxist ideal in the most powerful institution in the world (the Federal Reserve) and the Federal Reserve likewise has a great deal of sway on the markets, it seemed rather important to be aware of.

Moving on to the count, there's no change from last update.  Bulls held the previously-discussed price point and inflection zone, and futures are indicating a gap up open:

In conclusion, there's no change at all since last update, except to note that the market is now set up for a potential big move (shocking).  Keep in mind that if the bear count comes to pass, the conservative target is 3180-3200, then ~3150ish... but the most aggressive potential targets stretch as low as ~3000ish (and potentially beyond if we then form a still-larger impulse wave).  So, not surprisingly, we may see some fireworks in the wake of the election.  I'm just barely leaning toward it being in the downward direction, but it really could go either way still, so please take that with a grain of salt.  Trade safe.

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