Friday, December 18, 2020

SPX Update: Long-term, Intermediate-term, and Short-term

I tend to publish my long-term charts only occasionally (because they are, you know, "long term," so they don't need to be updated often).  Basically, I only update them when it's relevant to do so -- but I've found that sometimes readers get confused about where we are in the big picture, so today we're going to lead with the long-term chart.  

Keep in mind that, given the massive degree we're dealing with (SuperCycle), the market has a lot of room to wiggle, so don't get too married to exactly where 5 is shown.  At this stage, the big picture chart is more of a compass than a roadmap.

Near-term, SPX held C1 and rallied up nearly toward its next target zone:

Intermediate-term, SPX is again challenging resistance.  Keep in mind that the more often a level is tested, the weaker it gets.  This is why the most valuable levels (for a trader) are the levels we identify BEFORE the market reaches them (of course, that's also when it's hardest to act at those levels).  For example, on the chart below, I first called attention to black intermediate resistance in August.  SPX then rallied up and tagged that line at 3588.  SPX then proceeded to be rejected to the tune of nearly 400 points.  We saw the level in advance, and that first tag after we identified that zone was also when it had the most value.

In conclusion, SPX is again challenging intermediate resistance, but it's challenged it so much that it's certainly weakened the zone, so we'll see if bulls can break through it now or if they get rejected again.  Trade safe.

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