Wednesday, December 9, 2020

SPX Whistles Through the Graveyard as Storm Clouds Gather

Most people know something's wrong.  They feel it in the air, so they turn on the TV, or click through the internet, trying to figure out what it is.  Many of them eventually settle on what they believe must be the "explanation" for their unease -- because it's human nature to search for reasons.

But most of them have it wrong.  I know this because everyone feels it, but ask 10 people what the problem is and you'll get 12 different explanations.  Some will say it's Covid.  Some will say it's Trump; yet others will say the exact opposite.  Some will say it's something else entirely.  These explanations are usually not compatible with each other.  In fact, they're often diametrically opposed... but the funny thing is, most everyone agrees that SOMETHING -- whatever that something is -- is seriously, seriously wrong.

Is it possible we sense something brewing at a more instinctive level, the way animals sometimes do, but since we are not "wholly instinctual creatures," we're blindly searching for a rational explanation to justify our instincts?  In other words, we're "reasoning" backwards: We sense that things aren't right, so we're all trying to put our fingers on why... then eventually settle on something, and keep blaming "that" -- when really it's bigger than "that."

What I do know for certain is that our problems are bigger than one or two things.  People who are hoping things will return to "normal" if/when Trump is out of office are in for a massive letdown, in my view.  I think things are only going to get worse, though they'll likely be presented in a way that's superficially more palatable to the masses.  And most people are so tied up by their own day-to-day existence and survival, which is no joke, that they don't have the time or energy to dig into existential problems -- and I guess perception is reality in that regard, so maybe "superficially palatable" will be enough, and those folks won't be let down after all.

But I think, even if the unease abates briefly for some, the belly of this beast goes much deeper.

And when I look toward the long-term horizon, I don't see a storm dissipating... I see a massive storm advancing.


Chart wise, SPX has continued to bounce along the underside of intermediate resistance like an upside-down ping-pong ball:

In conclusion, SPX has continued to run at intermediate resistance, but has yet to break through, which leaves the intermediate picture in the same place it was last update.  Trade safe.

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