Wednesday, January 27, 2021

SPX Update: On Target

Recent updates discussed that the last decline was most likely a micro fourth wave (of course, discussed while the decline was unfolding), which would lead to new highs in the fifth wave, which could then (by implication) wrap up a larger rally wave (hence the 3/5 label at the projected new high).

Recent updates also had the rising red trend line pegged as "first meaningful support" -- and the market has since declined to test red, then bounced up to new highs, which could thus complete the larger wave.  So the question now is primarily whether this will mark a near-term top (for grey 4? if the ATH marks the peak of blue 3) or an intermediate/long term top, if the rally was ALL OF blue 5:

In conclusion, the last few updates have been on target... now we simply have to see how it develops from here to determine if this is a minor top or a major top.  Note that the red trend line is no longer necessarily meaningful support, and we'd look to the lower blue rising trend line if red fails, then potentially toward 3700-19 if that were to fail... then toward the blue horizontal if that were to fail.  Trade safe.

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