Friday, March 5, 2021

SPX and Gold Updates: Been a Great Week for Bears

Last update noted that the rally could be over (for now) via a big WXY, and that count was confirmed with dramatic new lows yesterday.

There are multiple potential counts in this position, so we're going to focus on "keeping it simple" via trendlines today.  We'll start with the near-term SPX chart:

Bigger picture, it's easy to see why SPX is bouncing from yesterday's low:

Also realized there was a typo on the gold chart, so wanted to update that.  Gold reached its minimum downside target yesterday, with its test of the blue/black confluence (but, as noted on 2/28, may still have farther to run):

In conclusion, on Friday, I published "Is the Party Over?" and so far the market is doing everything in its power to agree that the party may indeed be over.  Sure, bears still don't have long-term confirmation... but as I intimated in that piece, the nature of the market is such that by the time there's "confirmation," pretty much everyone is on board.  That said:  On the flip side of my own sentiment (which is "bearish"), SPX did test an important zone yesterday, and bears do need to claim that zone for early confirmation.  Especially if the Fed steps in with more QE.  Trade safe.  

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