Monday, April 26, 2021

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Last update noted that SPX and COMPQ had both reached support and could bounce directly... while in the forum, I mentioned that my first instinct was that Thursday's high was a b-wave (suggesting that the decline was wave c of an expanded flat, and thus that the market would rally back beyond Thursday's high).  And while the ferocity of the decline on Thursday made it a little less certain, the market rallied from the open on Friday, and first instinct won out in the end.

Where we are now:  Either in the midst of a third wave up from last week's low, or in the process of forming a more complex flat.  If we're in the middle of a third wave, then bulls have the ball and won't look back for a while.  If the market is going to form a more complex flat (unpredictable, but would work well here), then SPX would top soon (may or may not need another slight new high) and head back below 4118.  A typical retrace would be 110-117 points off the prevailing high; in other words, if the current high of 4194 were to begin a flat, then 4070-80ish would be the typical target zone.  That would make the ATH a b-wave and lead back to new ATHs after the correction completed.

COMPQ would perform in a similar way:

In conclusion, no big surprises on Friday, and now the market has a couple options.  For greatest confusion, it could opt for the expanded flat, but that type of correction is largely unpredictable at this stage.  On a side note, I'm going to take my wife's birthday (Wednesday) off from the updates, so I'll return on Friday.  Trade safe.

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