Wednesday, April 7, 2021

SPX and NYA: No Change (but a Note for Bears Included)

After talking about this for months, SPX is finally testing the very-long-term red trendline.  It has not been able to sustain a breakout over this line since the bull market began, over 12 years ago.  If it can do so now/soon, then SPX would be in literal uncharted waters.  We thus can't entirely ignore this inflection.

Everyone wants to know if there's any way this test of the long-term red line could be "it," and while that's less likely, it's not impossible:

The annotation above pretty much says it all, so let's look at near-term support/resistance:

In conclusion, no real change from last update, but I did want to at least note the alternate big picture count, because it always pays to know the options, as that allows one to shift psychological gears more quickly if the playing field unexpectedly changes.  Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. Unlikely we are near THE TOP. Numerous business articles mentioning historic extreme in buffet's model. Once they dismiss it out of hand we know the top is near. 1st year of new president usually tries to get the hard choices out of way. instead the push for debt & trillion dollar programs a replacement. Crazy corrupt incompetent cult-like movement making the roaring 20's seem angelic. Quarterly earnings dead ahead with only positive surprises. Acceleration of move starts soon.