Wednesday, September 1, 2021

SPX and NYA: Decision Time

 On August 25, I wrote:

Wave iv (not its real name) could, of course, become even more complex -- but that may have been enough chop for now. A sustained breakout over black likely gets us to at least 4530-50, possibly much higher if 5 chooses to extend.

And, after the prescribed breakout over black, that target was captured on Monday, with SPX tagging ~4537.  This has left SPX in an interesting position:

(Note:  Typo -- should read "4480-4495"!  Not "4480-4995," for crying out loud.)

Bigger picture, we may finally be getting close to learning if this wave wants to extend or not:

NYA still hasn't managed a breakout over the first red line, so that's relevant for now:

In conclusion, the "standard" fifth target zone of June 7 (4480-4550) has been almost fully captured now, placing SPX at a decision point (see first chart).  While a whipsaw of black wouldn't be the end of the world for bulls (see smaller subdividing bull 1 of iii of (v) option), it could be a warning of more bearish things to come, and thus harder to trade -- accordingly, bulls would like to see this back test of black hold for the near-term.

On an unrelated note, this year marks the 20th anniversary of 9/11, and I can highly recommend National Geographic's new 9/11: One Day in America miniseries.  My wife and I have almost finished watching the series, and it does justice to the great men and women who suffered through that tragic day.

Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. i dont understand why we keep trying to guess this "market" and putting labels on it anymore. There is no way in hell we'll ever see another 10% decline, ever! Risk? what risk! ha!