Friday, September 10, 2021

SPX and NYA Updates

 Last update, I wrote:

So my endless string of weird issues with Stockcharts continues. Today, for some reason, I couldn't download anything, so I had to take screenshots -- so if the charts seem to be missing portions, you can thank Stockcharts.

And there's been no change to that portion of the update.  As far as the market goes, we have now whipsawed the black breakout and traveled down into the upper edge of the "bull 2 of iii of (v)" option that I noted a while back.  It should be noted that, as a potential second wave, there is no hard zone except green "bull:ii."  This is part of the reason why, on September 1, I opined that this pattern, if it occurred, would be "harder to trade."

[also, note that black (v) should be at the ATH, obviously, not sure how I overlooked that!]

So, since there's no hard price zone (anywhere nearby, that is), we'll have to work with the near-term patterns as best we can.  Starting with:

Below yesterday's low would suggest a trip to the 4472-80 zone at the minimum, and a minor (near-term) waterfall at the maximum, potentially rather quickly down to 4445-56.

NYA (next) is not quite to the black rising line:

In conclusion, yesterday's low is the first zone bears want to claim -- this would help them near term, with room for even a near-term waterfall, but would still leave things up in the air at the larger time frames... for now.  Do continue to keep in mind that the ATH does mark a potential MAJOR inflection zone, inasmuch as it could have completed an ending diagonal fifth (as we previously discussed -- thus, "major" as in:  It was a possible "end of the 12 year bull market" wave).  Trade safe.

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