Friday, September 17, 2021


Last update concluded:

...the question at the moment seems to be whether bulls will manage a near-term bounce, perhaps back up to retest the black trend line on NYA (dragging SPX with it, perhaps also to test its black trend line).  Other than that, it's hard to find a lasting bottom pattern here, so lower prices do still ultimately appear reasonable to expect.

Below is NYA's chart since:

SPX also rallied up to its black line, then even managed to tag its red line for good measure:

Both markets then reversed pretty hard and tested their recent lows, before bouncing back up toward the aforementioned highs, where we currently find ourselves.  

Which brings us to the "bonus" TLT chart:

In conclusion, both SPX and NYA have completed minimum retests of broken support and could thus head directly lower if they want -- but do remain aware that it's not uncommon for markets to do a couple trips where the zone from the bounce is revisited (even slightly broken) and then the broken support zone is revisited.  In Elliott Wave, this often takes the form of a complex flat -- and they are generally pretty unpredictable.  I'm not trying to "predict" one here, just noting it's always possible.  Other than that, no real change to the past few updates.  Trade safe.

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