Friday, October 22, 2021

SPX and COMPQ: Back to the Drawing Board

Been a while since I had to eat crow, so I had forgotten how bitter it tastes, and for the first time in a long time, I feel that old bearish urge to complain about the disconnect between the market and the real economy, about Fed funny money, and about, well, just general late-stage-republic nonsense. 

But I'm always preaching about how the market is what it is, so I'll attempt to refrain from all that and simply say that the bear count I was leaning into has officially been kicked out with the new all-time high, so the preferred count was a bust this time around.

It turns out that those long-term trend lines, which we talked about a few times, were apparently all the market was aiming for.


Same thing with the chart we previously looked at for TRAN.  Obviously, were the market to return back to that line anytime soon and sustain a breakdown, then maybe bears would be back in business.

Near-term, there's some temptation to try to count this as a triangle, due to the overlapping mess in the middle, but it would need to be a running triangle if it were to be a triangle at all, and running triangle is one of the patterns I try to avoid using unless absolutely necessary.

In conclusion, bulls have killed the bear 1-2 count, but bears do still have the option for a more complex flat.  If this is the most bullish count (blue), then bears will have to wait on the back burner for at least a little while.  Bigger picture, presuming this breakout sticks, we are again going to be back to wondering if the market gets its extended fifth wave after all.  Trade safe.


  1. Can I please get my account approved? I made a donation at the start of September. User name is scarey. Thanks.

  2. gosh it looked so right for the bearish set up....I am with you, personally I like my crow with a little salt and pepper... maybe some hot sauce depending on the drinks being served...

  3. Your bullish count has a degree violation. ii is longer than 2

    1. Yep, it is. Please consider renaming your charting style as PretzelWaves or something, cause it's not Elliott Wave that's for sure. Don't get me wrong, you are good at what you do, and your market intuition is often times spot on, but this is not Elliott Wave as detailed by RN Elliott.