Friday, October 8, 2021

SPX Update: A Big Deal

Last update noted the bevy of long-term trendlines just below the market, and, not surprisingly, the market managed a respectable bounce from those lines.  If you're a bull, then that's the back-test you were hoping for, and you probably stay the course.  If you're a bear, you view this as the market just winding up for an even bigger drop to come.

Let's get right into the charts.  First up, the near-term SPX chart.  We can see on the chart below that "Bear ii of 3" has enough waves to be complete, and will remain on the table unless the "Bears: ALL OF 2" high is claimed.  At that point, we'd keep an eye out for black C.

Bigger picture, the bulls are still holding their next key line -- do note that yesterday's high roughly tested the underside of the black trend channel and was rejected, so that's the flip side of that coin.

In conclusion, there are enough waves in place for Bear ii of 3 if the market wants that path -- and continue to keep in mind that if that is the count (and I'm not sure it is), then we are on the cusp of a significant waterfall event.  Meaning this inflection is a big deal.  Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. Hi. What are your overall thoughts on the probability that Bear ii of 3 is in place? At the moment, the market seems very yo-yo like so trying to gauge your thoughts