Friday, November 5, 2021

SPX Update: October 25 Upside Target Captured

Last update expected the Fed day to follow recent patterns, and it did not disappoint in that regard, following that description to the letter.  It also noted that there was at least the possibility of a small corrective fourth wave, but it appears the market has chosen to extend the current (micro) fifth wave instead, forestalling that small correction until later.

Bigger picture, at today's open, SPX should capture the upside target from October 25:

In conclusion, again no change, and the trend still remains up for now.  The first bigger picture upside target should be firmly captured at today's open.  Trade safe.


  1. Last phase of a glorious golden age bull cycle. Seasonality & a world being forced to stop getting infected will result in a huge runup from here. Late January is the first possible dramatic drop. Too good to be transitory? you bet. The dollar, bond yields, wage growth will spike into something not seen since before the deflationary cycle of the last 40 plus years. Even Buffett gave up on his own models by claiming this low inflation environment can accept such over valued levels. Best guess for final top is March/April of 2022. We have entered the New Paradigm feel good period where increasing debt load will be cheered.

    1. Addendum: Buffets own 7 indicators are either at new highs or approaching them. Shiller SP500 P/E just hit 40. Highest ever was in 2000 at 44. This we should easily break over next 2 months. National/corporate/personal debt used to be calculated as a marker for stock market advancement. No longer. The mass appeal for current market conditions is same for the seeping takeover by the GOP. Dismantling republic, platform of bigotry and autocratic rule praised by wall street. can you guess what both stock market and political environment have in common? Self destructive path.

    2. Apologize for hogging the comments. Noticed all stocks in crypto category is about to go ballistic! Expect this holiday season might end up the best ever recorded. A Pompeii style outcome?