Friday, December 3, 2021

SPX Update: Green Line in the Sand

The last couple updates have been quite detailed, so there's no need to rehash all that, so we can instead get back to the near-term now.  First up, the short-term SPX chart shows that this week's low could be a complete WXY correction, and that's probably the last "not unusual" type of wave that could fit as a fourth wave (in other words, it's not impossible for an even more complex correction, but that would be an outlier type of wave).

Bigger picture, the green trend line highlighted below has been on a number of my charts through the years, so it's interesting that SPX has found at least some support there:

In conclusion, the fourth wave option for bulls isn't dead yet, but if SPX heads much lower, then there won't be many common waves that could still fit for a near-term bull count.  New lows would also break the green trend line, so that's probably the first line in the sand for bulls now... and the most bearish potential count out there is a nasty bear nest... so in the event of any sustained new lows, bulls should probably exercise extreme caution.  Trade safe.

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