Wednesday, April 6, 2022

SPX Update: SPX Behaving Well, and One More Argument for the Decline of Western Civilization

Last update gave a "rough sketch" of the preferred count, and that option is in the process of playing out:

If there's a sustained violation of the KO zone, then we'll have to consider the alternate count (below), though bulls will still have near-term options (such as the ending diagonal mentioned on the chart above):

Back in 2020, when we were still anticipating that the Supercycle rally had farther to go, I gave some of my reasons for why I had begun leaning toward that rally as Supercycle V instead of Supercycle III.  A few months after publishing those reasons, it also dawned on me that America's falling birth rates could be another contributing factor to SC V, but I haven't mentioned that here since then... so I figured "why not finally mention it today?"  It's something I've been meaning to mention for a while, and no time like the present, right?

In conclusion, near-term, things have been going as expected so far; we'll see if bulls can hold the KO zone and take it from there in the next update.  Trade safe.

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