SPX Update: Instant Replay?

So last update expected Monday morning's gap up would be sold, which was a hit, and many traders would consider that to have been a pretty good call -- but then SPX decided to get cute and failed to reach my downside targets, so I have to file last update as only a partial success (for now).  The question now is whether this is simply a more complex version of the same pattern, or if something more bullish is underway.  I tend to lean slightly toward the former, but the pattern has gotten a bit hairy, so I can't assign high confidence to that.

(note, typo:  "4130-49" should be "4030-49")

 

Bigger picture, we're basically in the exact same place we were last update, back up testing the top of T2 again:

In conclusion, the very near-term was easier to read last update than it is now, so we'll see how it plays.  If bulls make a slight break over 4178 and then reverse lower, we could be in a more complex 4th... if they break out and hold it, then bears have to be cautious.  But first things first, and until bulls break 4178 at all, bears still have a shot here.  Trade safe.