Friday, December 9, 2022

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: On the Cusp of an Impulse

The market has gone nowhere since last update, so let's talk about what to look for in order for the current decline to qualify as an "impulsive decline" (which simply means five waves down).  This is probably best illustrated using the INDU chart:

No change to the big picture -- the main question is whether blue 3 has already begun or not:

Worth noting that COMPQ was again rejected at resistance (I called attention to the test of resistance on November 21), so that test of resistance could very well have been a classic "return to the scene of the crime":

In conclusion, if the market goes on to form an impulsive decline, that would suggest at least one more wave down of similar size -- it does not guarantee that blue 3 has begun.  However, given the turn from the blue 2 inflection, we might treat it that way at least until it reaches the next inflection, which would arrive after the aforementioned "one more wave down."  Of course, if it does not go on to form an impulsive decline, then all of that is moot anyway.  Trade safe.

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