Friday, February 10, 2023

SPX and NYA Updates

On Monday, I noted that bulls needed to recover the breakout or they were at risk, and SPX now appears to have head-fake whipsawed (some people only refer to downside whipsaws as "whipsaws" and upside breakout/reversals as "head-fakes," but I generally refer to fake breakouts in either direction as "whipsaws," since the informal use of the term simple means "subject to a double loss," which is why I sometimes use both terms for upside "whipsaws") its most recent breakout.

NYA has remained stalled since effectively reaching its target zone (coming within less than 1% of the target may have been close enough):

And, of course, as noted before, Blue 2 remains on the table:

In conclusion, bears are still very much in the near-term game here, and normally one would expect some downside follow-through to the pattern so far (though worth being aware that it's three waves down from 4176 so far, which, 9 out of 10 times, means it either needs to become five down, or it will turn into an expanded flat that runs back toward 4176 before heading lower later; 1 out of 10 times it's something weird like a double three).  Trade safe.

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