Monday, February 27, 2023

SPX Update: "Easy" Part is Over for Now

In Friday's update (which was published when the S&P futures were trading just off of Thursday's high), I wrote that I suspected that SPX needed another new low, which it reached at the open.  As I also wrote, that low would be an inflection point.  I wrote this because that low is potentially three complete waves down in SPX from 4195, which means we shouldn't entirely discount the possibility that bulls could regain near-term (or larger) control from here.

What bears would like to see now is a bounce in a larger fourth wave (which could take a week or longer to unfold), then another new low in a fifth wave.

SPX came up a hair short of the red trend line, but was in the ballpark:

In conclusion, the "easy" part is over for now, and I can no longer promise more new lows -- we'll just have to see how it develops for a bit, to determine if the market wants to form a potential impulse down, or if that whole decline was merely a correction.  Trade safe.

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