Friday, March 17, 2023

SPX Update

Since last update, the rumor began to float that several large banks (including JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Freeman, Morgan Morgan & Morgan, and The Bank Without a Morgan) might team up and, just when they were needed the most, prop up the Federal Reserve.  This led to a significant bounce, and SPX rallied 100 points on the thought that maybe we wouldn't have to listen to Powell say "tools" ever again.

Of course, the bad news is that there suddenly seem to be a lot of banks that need propping up, but let's not talk about... hey look, a squirrel!

Chart-wise, the near-term suggests we might have three waves up off the 3808 low, but it could support one more wave beyond yesterday's high and remain a three.  It might be easier to watch the red channel than to try to nail down the exact near-term count.  If the current rally is a simple C-wave up from 3838, then it already tagged the upper red boundary, but is also allowed to overthrow it a bit if it wants.

Big picture, not much to add to the past few updates.  Red 2 is not invalidated yet, so we can't entirely ignore it as an option, and it stays on the chart for now -- but recall, as I wrote previously, that we are presuming blue 3 is underway unless and until the market tells us otherwise.

In conclusion, not much else to add to the past few updates.  Trade safe.

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