Wednesday, May 3, 2023

SPX and NYA: Moment of Truth

Since last update, SPX effectively retested its prior swing high and was strongly rejected.  This is the moment of truth for blue 2:

NYA is interesting, because, unlike SPX, it did not make a new high, instead making a slightly lower low.  This suggests that these markets need at least a little more downside, as NYA's current decline would be expected to at least reach parity with its prior little leg down (from 15710 to 15201), which would mean it (most likely, these are never 100%) needs to make its way down to 15110-20 at the minimum.  Note the red horizontal is now potentially a key overlap:

Today is, of course, a Fed day, which means Powell needs to decide whether to let inflation run amok or whether to continue trying to convince the market that it's being stupid and that (to quote a Fed interoffice memorandum) The Fed is Really Serious About Taming Inflation This Time, We Mean It (for Realz Y'all!) So Bulls Should Quit Acting Like Everything is Going Back to "Normal" Tomorrow Because It's Not.  

Either way, things could get interesting soon.  Trade safe.

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