Monday, June 26, 2023

SPX and NYA: Big Picture and Near-term Counts for this Major Inflection Zone

Last update I outlined some of the reasons I'm still betting on the bears for the bigger picture, so today we'll do a deeper dive into the near term.

Before we do that, though, let's look again at where we seem to be at the intermediate level, starting with NYA (no change from recent updates):


And now, the near term.  It doesn't require any creative counting to come up with five complete waves, but the overall structure would "look" a bit better with one more high:

In conclusion, SPX and NYA have both stalled at the lower edges of their respective inflection zones -- and again, these are not minor inflection zones, these are major inflections with significant downside potential if they generate a turn (which I am currently presuming they will).  Both markets appear to need at least a bit more downside (potentially after a bounce in 2/B up), so we'll be watching that closely to see if it exceeds what might be expected for a fourth wave (black 4 on the final chart).  If this is a fourth wave, then the market has some wiggle room to head a little higher afterwards, back into the higher edges of the inflection zone.  If no fourth wave materializes, then the bear market may be gearing up to resume in the near future.  Trade safe.

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