Wednesday, June 21, 2023

SPX and NYA: Important Inflection Zone

A week ago, I wrote:

I'm very close to publishing [the alternate intermediate bull count] now (eighty percent of the time, "finally" publishing a bull count is the best way to create a bear move, so we'll see if the threat of publication is enough to cause the market to reverse, or if I actually need to publish the bull count to really force the market's hand).

I then published that count on Friday, and lo and behold, after exceeding the SPX target/inflection zone by a hair, the market reversed that very session.  Interestingly, NYA fell a hair short of its target/inflection, but also reversed.  Let's start there:

As we can see, NYA could support one more smallish wave up, but if we are indeed on the cusp of a bear move, it would not be uncommon for such a wave to fail to materialize.

SPX is in a similar position:

As yet, we don't quite have a small impulse down, but a couple sets of slightly lower lows today might accomplish that.  

In conclusion, this is -- quietly, for the masses -- a major inflection zone.  The market does have a little leeway to run a little bit higher if it wants (and still remain in the inflection zone), but if there's a bear move to come, such moves often attempt to take "everyone" by surprise.  Trade safe.

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