Friday, October 20, 2023

SPX, NYA, COMPQ, TLT: On the Right Track

Yesterday no doubt came as a surprise to people who don't read these updates, as SPX continued lower from Blue 4, ultimately dropping through a level that many bulls thought was going to act as strong support. 

Let's look at the SPX chart first, which (spoiler alert) mentions the primary target for Wave 5 (if blue Wave 4 doesn't become more complex, and if blue 5 neither extends nor truncates), which, coincidentally enough, aligns right with the location where I previously placed the Wave 5 label, along with some other zones of interest:

Next up is NYA:

Next is INDU:

COMPQ (nothing new here):

And finally, TLT is reaching a zone that probably needs to act as support.  Funny thing is, this is a falling support zone, so it could always bounce along down this zone like a slinky (if slinkies bounced, that is.  You know what I mean!).  So even if it finds support at this zone, it doesn't necessarily mean a big rally.  Some part of me thinks 75 +/- looks like an aesthetically-pleasing next target, but don't hold me to that.

In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates, which means the last few updates were on the right track and the market's done nothing but add confidence to my bearish lean.  Incidentally, if today begins with a little bounce back up over 76, then there's a reasonable chance that the overnight low is a corrective b-wave -- meaning the overnight futures low would be revisited and broken soon after (the overnight low sits down near ~4253 cash equivalent, though this isn't an exact equivalent, so allow a little leeway).  Trade safe.

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