Friday, November 17, 2023

NYA Update: (Don't) Trade What You See...?

SPX traded sideways since last update, so there's nothing to add on that front, but I do want to share with readers the reason I didn't immediately jump ship on the bear count.

Maybe the pattern below is NOT what it fully appears to be -- if it's not what it looks like, then bulls are in the clear.  But take a gander and see if you agree that the highlighted portion of the move (in red) appears to be three waves.

The little red abc sure looks like a classic B-wave high -- tell me if you think I'm nuts for seeing that or if you see the same thing? -- which would in turn imply the low was wave C of B, and further imply the current rally is the C-wave of an expanded flat.  So that kept me from assuming the best for bulls, and still gives me pause (or "gives me paws"?) -- but maybe that's just not what it is.  In any case, readers with a working knowledge of Elliott Wave know that B-wave highs and lows are "false" bottoms or tops and destined to be revisited.  We'll find out soon enough if that's the case here or not.  

Maybe -- and I can't stress this enough -- maybe it's just not.  But I've never been able to ignore what I see, for better or for worse.  In this case, the high-precision, low-tolerance nature of this count is one of the reasons why I advised awaiting an impulsive decline before getting too active with it.  The bull count is not shown on this chart, but remains as previously stated.  Trade safe.

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