Wednesday, December 20, 2023

End of the Year Update: Counting Chickens

SPX is flirting with the all-time high and its first "bull count" target from June:

Bulls (and bears) have seemingly all decided that a new all-time high is a given, and maybe it is, but as the old expression goes:  "Don't count your chickens before the cows come home to roost."  

SPX is again facing the same resistance zone that knocked it down the last time bulls were expecting a new all-time high -- i.e.- the old red trendline.   (Bears have forgotten that many bulls lost a bunch of money buying too early during the last decline and getting stopped out, before buying again and getting stopped out again (when that rally turned out to only be the 4th wave of C) -- before finally being rewarded by being too scared to pull the trigger at the actual bottom and therefore missing most of the big rally, before closing their longs way too early and missing the rest of the rally since then.  That's the thing:  The grass isn't greener, it's just that everything always seems so darn easy until you have actual money on the line and your emotions are fully invested.)

COMPQ is also now into the general ZONE (it's a zone, not an exact level) of the old "or (2)" bear inflection:

NYA suggests there may still be a bit more upside, but I do have to note (and did, on the chart) that the first inflection zone for the C wave has been reached.  (You know, just in case those chickens don't hatch.)

So, we'll see how it goes here.  Maybe bulls will blow right through these resistance/inflection zones as well.  Maybe there's just so much liquidity floating around (from where God only knows) that the market simply can't go down.  But I'm just sayin', those chickens haven't actually hatched yet, so let's see if the cows come home to roost, because a penny saved is worth two in the bush.  


And with that, as per usual, I bid my adieu for the year.  I have relatives on-island until (I think, keep meaning to double-check) January 5, so I'm going to try to make the most of my time with family this year, because, for one thing, we're running out of Christmases where we have any kids at all at home.  Our oldest already flew the coop, and our next oldest is getting close.  We really only have one kid left who's still a "kid" (technically he's a teenager, but this is probably the last year where he's still more childlike than not).  

You know, when I had my first, I remember SO MANY older couples saying, "Treasure it, they grow up so fast!"  And -- especially when it's your first and the kid is still an infant and keeping you up all night and just generally demanding every bit of your free time and energy to the point that you're convinced the whole experience must be some kind of punishment -- you think, "Yeah, right, they grow up fast.  Man, I HOPE so."  Because at that point, you'd really just like to get a full night's sleep again, for crying out loud, and you're still kind of in the mindset you were in when you were childless, and this new gig seems like nothing but sacrifice.  Which it is.  (Eventually you realize it's one of the most rewarding sacrifices you can make in this life, but you don't realize that two weeks in.  Or at least, I didn't.)

And then you blink, and they're off to college.  

And you can't believe how much time has passed and how quickly it did.  And you find yourself nostalgic and a bit wistful for so many things that you feel like you didn't savor enough when they were happening.  

You other parents know what I mean.

Anyway, I'll likely return with the updates on January 3, unless there's still nothing interesting to say about this market, in which case I may just enjoy another few days of family time.  But probably on January 3.  

As is tradition for the final update before Christmas, here's the link to a non-market-related piece I penned almost exactly a decade ago (Can't believe it was a decade ago already.  "They grow up so fast!"), titled:  

Merry Christmas to all my readers -- or Happy Holidays, if that's your thing instead.  Trade -- and be -- safe this holiday.  I wish you all the best for the New Year.

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