Wednesday, December 6, 2023

SPX and NYA Updates

The market has traded sideways for a week, so there's not a lot to add to recent updates.  I realize that it's fashionable to be bullish now, so I've drawn up a bull chart for sake of reference.   

Again, as I've discussed previously, I think if that bull count does show up and give us a new ATH, it probably doesn't get too much further than that, because the option of this rally to be the first subdivision of a new massive bull wave just seems silly to me.  But hey, maybe I'm wrong.  Here's the chart I published on Dec 1, discussing this:

Of course, everyone seems to be presuming that a new ATH is just a given in SPX, and while I agree it's possible, I don't think it's automatic.  In the event it doesn't materialize for bulls, here's an interesting chart to watch for as long as it's relevant (it could always become irrelevant by the end of today's session -- or not):

In conclusion, I continue to maintain that in the big picture, while it's entirely possible I was a wave early, I don't see many positive developments coming down the pike (to the contrary, pending Treasury supply alone is going to suck a ton of liquidity out of the market), which is probably what I'd need to see to convince me I was way off.  I'm open to change if the playing field changes materially -- but so far, it hasn't.  Trade safe.

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