Wednesday, March 27, 2024

SPX, BKX, INDU: Whose Line Is It Anyway?

Months ago, this market reached that point where all of us stopped talking about bear options with any conviction, and we're probably all still there.  Maybe rightly so.  Or maybe that alone is starting to mean something ("I subscribe to the law of contrary public opinion.  If everyone thinks one thing, then I say: bet the other way." -- Al Pacino in Glengarry Glen Ross, unintentionally outlining a layman's version of Contrarian Investing).  In any case, for now, I'll continue the established tradition of speaking about bear options only in hushed tones.  

So, while there are still more questions than answers about this market, it is interesting to watch BKX react to the old blue horizontal and (C)/(3) labels:

When I drew that blue horizontal months ago, I did place it where it is because I suspected it would act as resistance, so it would be premature to claim the 2/B count has completed, but it's interesting, nonetheless.

INDU still has some interesting options as well:

But, of course, for those above options to start being given any additional consideration, bears still have work to do in the near-term first:

In conclusion, BKX did reach an inflection point and has reacted to it, so we have to at least stay open to the possibility that might develop into something more serious, though bears do have more work to do first.  Trade safe.

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