Wednesday, March 20, 2024

SPX Update: Fed Day

Today, the Fed will emerge from its bunker to announce what it's going to do about interest rates.  A fair number of people seem to be expecting the Fed to start lowering rates "any minute now!" (the same people have been expecting that for roughly a year now) but that still seems premature to me.  I suppose we'll see.

No matter what the Fed does, even if what it "does" is nothing at all, the market typically reacts like this is earth-shattering news that has either appalled or amazed everyone on the planet.  As a result, Fed days can be both treacherous and fun to trade -- and sometimes outright hilarious, as they reveal the irrational nature of humanity and its construct known as "the market."

Chart-wise, we're still in "nothing particularly bearish has happened yet" territory.  In fact, nothing at all has really happened, other than a sidewise grind.

In conclusion, given the sideways nature of the near-term market and the fact that the larger trend is still "up," the onus remains on bears to get something going.  Since today is a Fed day, there is, of course, always the chance that today becomes their opportunity.  Trade safe.

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