Friday, April 19, 2024

SPX and BKX: SPX Captures Target 2

In the prior update, I wrote that I expected SPX to capture Target 2 (4970-5005, from 4/12) and yesterday, it dropped down to 5001, capturing that target.  The immediate question now is whether wave v is close to being complete -- or if it will extend.  

After that, the next question is as discussed last update:

As we can see on the chart above, to complete C/3 down, bears would need another new low, which I'm currently inclined to suspect they'll get after a bounce. That would complete red v, which would complete THREE waves down [4/19 Note:  We are here now, at three waves down.], so from there, a rally to new ATHs would not be off the table. For bears to demonstrate more control, they would then need a bounce in a larger 4th wave, followed by another new low, at which point, we could conceivably label the entire wave off the ATH as an impulse.

Now, something worth mentioning:  It's unusual for a simple ABC correction (i.e.- a three wave move) to show the type of strength we've seen in this decline -- it's far more common to see this during the third wave of an impulse.  That said, it's not entirely unheard of, just much less common.  So, given that, the odds probably favor this becoming a larger impulse in the end.  Keep in mind, though, that odds are just that:  Odds.  They're not guarantees any more than you're "guaranteed" to win when you start with pocket aces in Texas Hold 'em.  Just like in poker, no matter how good your odds, you're still going to lose sometimes, irrespective of how strong your starting hand seemed before the flop.

BKX, though, does seem to continue to suggest that a major turn from the recent all-time-highs is quite possible:

In conclusion, SPX captured Target 2, good for around 200 points of profit for readers.  It would look a little better if it were to head at least a bit deeper into the 4970-5005 zone, but that's not required and if that's ALL OF 3/C down, a big bounce is possible any time.  If SPX does head a bit lower, then we'll have to watch and see if the fifth wave wants to extend or not, and I currently have no opinion on whether that will occur (it's essentially unpredictable), so don't go in "expecting" an extension, nor "expecting" the opposite -- stay nimble out there.  And trade safe.

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