Tuesday, May 14, 2024

SPX and COMPQ: The Early Years

It's always nice when you map out the market in advance and the market plays along, so you only need to look at everything to make sure nothing weird has happened, and if it hasn't, you can say, "no change" and publish the same charts again.

So that's exactly what I'm doing!  Because there will be plenty of times in the future when the market causes much weeping and gnashing of teeth, so we have to enjoy these relatively easy times when they come along:

COMPQ, too, has continued following its expected path (upward).  I've added a preliminary target for bull 5, though I reserve the right to refine that target (possibly higher) as the wave structure reveals itself a bit more:

In conclusion, inflation is still raging, World War III: The Early Years is already underway, the birthrate in America has fallen off a cliff, and AI will probably kill us all anyway -- so what's not to love about equities here?  Nothing, that's what.  Buy, Mortimer, buy!

Of course, after Bull 5 completes, all those aforementioned "bullish" goings-on will finally start to seem negative to people and threats will "suddenly" appear on the radar of the masses as the news cycle and mass psychology turn negative.  Seemingly without warning (for people who've been asleep since ~2009, anyway).  But we're not there yet, and there's always the possibility that Bull 5 will run even farther than it appears from here, so patience is still advised for bears -- though just a quick reminder that the near-term bearish black bear C (first chart) is still a technical possibility, even if it seems less likely, so I never advise complete complacency.  Trade safe.

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