Monday, June 17, 2024

SPX and BKX: SPX vs. The World

While I have my eye on many charts right now -- for example, NYA and INDU have both languished below recent highs despite the relative strength in SPX -- one chart I'm watching carefully is BKX.  BXK has been in a downtrend for a month now:

As noted, BKX is only three waves down so far, but we should keep an eye on this one to see if that decline becomes an impulse.  If it does, it should portend at least an intermediate correction (were it to form an ABC down), if not much more -- the most bearish case being the red 2/B on the chart, with Red 3/C being the start of a major bear wave.

SPX may have simply completed a complex ("simply... complex"?) 4th wave at micro degree, but I can't rule out the bear option yet.

In conclusion, SPX still has not formed an impulsive decline at any wave degree, so there's nothing for bears to write home about yet in that index.  I'm keeping a close eye on BKX (and NYA and INDU) though, because if those markets go on to form impulsive declines at larger degree, then that may be the canary in the coal mine.  Trade safe.

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