Monday, July 1, 2024

SPX Update: Correct Call vs. Correct Grammar

Friday's update concluded:

If I was forced at gunpoint to offer something, I'd probably lean toward SPX correcting some more (either with or without a modest new high), then (after correcting) going on to make another high to finally complete wave 5 and thus wrap up the remaining 4/5 I discussed a couple weeks ago.

SPX then went on to make a modest new high before reversing almost all the way back to the low of the week.  Although it was challenging to predict last week with much confidence, I can't call it much better than that, though in hindsight, I believe I probably should have used "were" and not "was" in that first quoted sentence.  

Which brings us to something I've never said in the 13 long years I've been updating this blog:  If you value these updates and want them to continue, then it's becoming more important than ever that you click the "donate" button on the upper right side of this page. 

I've published a fair number of charts recently, so just one today:

One thing that makes this a bit more challenging is that SPX is expected to be nearing the final fifth wave before a larger correction -- and one of my old sayings is: "Never bank on fifth waves."  So we could place an "alt. 5" where that (b) label is, at least in our minds. I didn't label it that way because the odds favor the b-wave (and thus that the current correction is part of a larger 4th wave), but odds are always just odds.

In conclusion, the market remains in difficult near-term territory, but last week's call (which was initially made on Monday during the live session) saved us from getting burned by multiple whipsaws.  I've outlined the options on the chart, so we'll just see how the market wants to play it from here and take another look on Wednesday.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment