SPX and COMPQ: Giving the Bulls Some Airtime

In the prior update, I wrote that I suspected SPX would form another leg up, and that has since happened.  Of course, Trump announced a tariff pause to go along with that (half a day after I wrote the update), proving for the 27,000th time that the charts lead the news.

Today, I want to give the bulls a bit more airtime, starting with the long-term SPX chart -- which is, in fact, the reason we need to have this discussion:

COMPQ bounced from where I suspected it would TO where I suspected it would... and I've outlined a possible bull count here as well, to show how things could fit together if we're living in a perfect bull world:

Finally, a near-term speculative option in SPX, if they want to punish everyone for a while (or, more technically, if the market wants to consolidate) before the market moves again:

In conclusion, I'm not capitulating the bear case just yet -- but given that bulls found support at one of their potential "last stand" zones, we can't and shouldn't pretend that didn't happen.  Hence, I've outlined some possible early warning signs for bears, along with what they need to do next to keep things going their way.  If bulls can't sustain trade and closes above the black trend line in the first SPX chart, then bears retain ironclad control.  Trade safe.